Introduction to Nevada Occupational Employment & Projections 2004-2014 / Explanation of Data Introduction
Projections by Occupation estimate the changes in occupational employment over time resulting from two principal causes, growth and technology. Changes in the number, size and type of employers within a given geographical area will affect the demand for certain occupations. Also, technological advances or changes in laws or regulations may affect the occupational mix.
Occupational employment estimates are based on survey data collected from Nevada employers through the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program. The survey covers over 700 occupations. Employers report how many individuals they employ in each occupation. The results generate an occupational distribution or staffing pattern for each industry. Occupational projections are then prepared by applying industry totals to occupational staffing patterns for each industry.
The base year (2004) is defined as the beginning year of the forecast cycle. The target or projected year (2014) is the ending year of the forecast cycle. In order to produce target-year occupational projections, a change factor developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is applied to each occupation. The resulting new occupational staffing patterns are then applied to the projected industry totals to give the target-year occupational projections. Occupational projections are prepared for all the State, the Las Vegas & Reno Metropolitan Statistical Area’s (MSA’s) and the Balance of State (BOS) which includes all Nevada areas except the Las Vegas and Reno MSA’s.
Using and Interpreting Projections Data
The projections contained in these tables are the best available source of information for estimating job opportunities, studying long-range economic and employment trends, planning education and training programs, and developing career information. However, before reaching any final conclusions the user should consider the following:
Remember that these data are estimates. They were developed based on the assumption that certain fundamental conditions will prevail through 2014 the institutional framework of the U.S. economy; existing technological and scientific trends; current values placed on work, education, income, and leisure, and the absence of catastrophic events. Events such as major business closures or openings and natural disasters can all have a major impact on employment levels.
Do not use these projections as your sole source of information. Use other, more recent sources of local economic data to corroborate the projection data. This information may be found in other documents published on Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Workforce Information Web site, local chambers of commerce, or local economic development agencies.
Projections employment data are annual averages. These averages may not accurately portray seasonal occupations or industries such as those found in agriculture, retail sales, recreation, and construction industries. Employment levels stated reflect estimates for all workers in Nevada. Included are all workers covered by Nevada’s Unemployment Insurance laws (about 95% of all workers) as well as those workers in industries that are made up largely of the self-employed such as medical offices, consulting, real estate, hair salons, and bookkeeping for example.
Suggestions for Users
The projections were prepared for employment and training planners, vocational educators, and others who need information on future employment by occupation. The outlook information can be used in making occupational training decisions and career choices. Employers considering expansion or relocation may find the report helpful in understanding the occupational composition and trends in the county or geographic region. However, it is important to keep in mind that projections are just one planning tool and that the estimates are based on information available at the time that the forecast was made.
- Changes in occupations are given in two categories, "Numerical Change" and "Percent Change." Numerical change means the number of jobs that are anticipated to be added or subtracted during the forecast period. "Percent Change" can be deceptive. A large percentage change does not necessarily mean a large number of jobs. For instance, if the base year for an occupation is 20 and the forecast year shows an increase of 10, it is a 50 percent increase. In reality, it is only 10 jobs.
- "Openings Due to Replacements" is an estimate of the number of people expected to leave the occupation permanently. Individuals may leave for another occupation, leave the occupation due to retirement or for personal reasons. However, these jobs need to be replaced by workers new to the occupation. If an occupation is in decline, some will not be replaced.
- These projections are estimates of the expected demand for individual occupations. However, the supply of individuals qualified for these occupations will affect the amount of competition that exists for these openings.
- General changes in the workplace affect some occupations. Jobs may be created, eliminated or consolidated because of restructuring or regulations affecting the requirements for the job. For example, personal computers and word processing programs eliminated many typist jobs, but created a need for word processors.
- An occupational title does not give details about the occupation. An individual starting a career search may want to look at the various occupations, choose any that are of interest and then do further research on the occupation or occupations of choice. There are many sources of information, such as the Nevada Career Information System that includes skills and educational requirements, hourly earnings, benefits, working conditions and advancement opportunities.
- Occupational projections data indicate the major local occupations and which occupations are likely to offer the greatest number of job opportunities. When possible, the user should focus on larger occupational groups rather than specific occupations. Some occupations may not appear in published tables because of the very small number of people employed in that occupation in that area or because of confidentiality concerns.
- Industry staffing patterns used for the projections process are developed from the annual Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Survey of employers. This survey is conducted utilizing a sample of the entire universe of Unemployment Insurance (UI) covered employers. Because it is a survey, it is important that the following points be considered:
There is inherent statistical error as a result of both the sampling process and the level of employer response to the survey mailings.
The OES staffing patterns may contain errors because of the problems employers may have in completing the survey. These errors typically include misunderstanding of survey instructions, misinterpretation of occupational definitions and/or titles contained on the forms, and clerical errors in filling out the forms.
The employer's response to the survey may reflect conditions that are atypical. The employer may be experiencing a temporary shutdown, seasonal high or low employment or a temporary increase in demand for his/her product or service.
- Occupational separations data are based on national separation rates and may not be representative of a local area when that area differs demographically from national norms.
For additional information on economic conditions in a particular county, you may contact the Workforce Information Unit at 775-684-0450 or detrlmi@nvdetr.org or visit your local Nevada JobConnect office. |
